The Nostromo's briefing · what is happening, and what is coming
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What is coming
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Rare moves: what almost never happens
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The day in detail
How volatile is each market today?
How to read the Volatility Level
The Volatility Level is how much each market is expected to move today, measured against its own usual movement. It measures how much a market moves, never which way.
The Nostromo's note
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Today's calendar
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The weather for the next two weeks · pick a market
How to read the two-week weather
How to read it
Every percentage on this chart is the size of one day's move, as a percentage of the price — up or down, without the sign. 0.50% on a $800 share is about $4. A bigger number means a more volatile day, never a better or worse one.
"Right" means we said calmer or more volatile than usual the night before, and that is what happened.
Left, the past days — did we call it?
Right, the days to come — what we expect
The color of each future box (and of each strip) says what kind of day it is for that market, compared with its usual day:
Example: if a market usually moves 0.52% a day and we expect 0.67%, that is 1.29× its usual: an orange, high day.
Each market has its own scale: a "low" day for chip stocks (SMH) can move more than a "high" day for the Dow (DIA).
SPY · the last six months
Green: the price was higher than two weeks earlier; red: lower, with the red band following the red stretches of the line. Adjusted closing prices. The weather on the left says how much it may move, never which way.
📅 The U.S. calendar · past events first, then what is coming
| Day | Event | Forecast the night before | Actual move | Ratio |
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| Day | Event | Time (ET) | That day, since 2010 (SPY) |
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In orange, days that moved at least 1.10 times the forecast. "Ratio" is the actual move divided by the forecast made the night before. Bold = history says that kind of day moves more than forecast; faded = not measured yet.
The Outlook: how volatile the next two weeks look
For every market, the expected Volatility Level for each of the next ten trading days, how much our own record says you can trust it, and the events on the calendar that usually move markets.
The next ten trading days, market by market
U.S. calendar: what usually moves the market
| When | Event | Moved more than forecast |
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The price of fear, fund by fund
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| Time | — | — | Fat Lady | — | — | — | Market | — | — | Result |
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Six ways the crew works for you
Everything on this page is produced by the ship's crew: the Nostromo, our AI analyst, who works on prices and calendars, and the Fat Lady, his night shift, who reads the news about the largest U.S. companies. Every box is built from live data only: when a box has no real data yet, it says so instead of showing an example. Every service follows the same rule as the rest of the Barometer: how much markets may move and what is coming — never which way.
📊 Earnings Watch
FAT LADYNOSTROMOWhen one of the giants publishes its results, the whole market can shake. For each report coming up we show the day the market answers, our forecast for the markets the company weighs on, and what the news says, from the stories the Fat Lady read this week. A bigger move than usual can be expected; a direction never.
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How to read Earnings Watch
📓 The Evening Log
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— the Nostromo
🏛 Fed & CPI Day Desk
NOSTROMOOn the days that move markets most — Fed decisions, inflation (CPI) and jobs reports — the Nostromo runs a live desk: what was expected, what came out, and how much markets moved compared with the forecast made the night before. Below, the last Fed day as it happened.
Why these days matter, and how to read the table
📡 News Radar
FAT LADYThe Fat Lady reads every story about the largest U.S. companies, day and night. The radar shows which companies are in the news more than usual right now: the stories of the last 24 hours against the company's usual daily flow. A company suddenly in the news is a reason to expect a livelier stock, not a direction.
How to read the radar
🔔 Volatility Alerts
NOSTROMOA short note when a market jumps two Volatility Levels or more in a single day, or when the Risk Pulse changes pattern. No advice, no tips: just a heads-up that the sea has changed. Below, the log of the last seven days: every note the alerts would have sent.
How to read the log
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📖 Glossary
NOSTROMO🧪 The Lab
The live numbers are on their way.
Market weather, delivered.
Choose how often you want to hear from the Nostromo. Every issue tells you how volatile the markets are, what is on the calendar and how our last forecast did — in a couple of minutes of reading. Never a tip, never a direction.
What you can count on
- Free
- Short: two to three minutes of reading
- Every number with its time stamp
- An unsubscribe link in every issue
- Your email used only to send what you chose — never sold, never shared
What you'll never get
- Buy or sell calls
- Price targets
- "Can't-miss" trades or paid tips
- Spam from third parties
The Crew: the systems behind every number
The Barometer isn't one model. It's a crew of systems, each with a single job, each keeping the others honest. They run around the clock on our own hardware. Here is who they are, what they have measured, and what they found.
Seven independent systems, different data, different time frames — from minutes to twenty years — reach the same conclusion. Can they call price direction? No. None of them beats a coin flip. Can they measure and forecast volatility? Yes: volatile days follow volatile days. That's why the Barometer only talks about volatility.
Track Record
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| Fund | Forecast | Actual | Result | — |
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How It Works
The Barometer tells you how rough the markets are, the way a weather report tells you how rough the sea is. It never tells you which way prices will go.
Reading the Volatility Level: 1 is very low, 8 is extreme
Every market gets a number from 1 to 8 that says how much it is moving compared with its own normal. 4 is a normal day or week. Lower numbers are calmer than normal; higher numbers are more volatile. The number says nothing about up or down.
Why compare each market with its own normal? Bitcoin moving 3% in a day is ordinary; a bond fund moving 3% is rare. This way Volatility Level 4 means "a normal amount" for every market. The scale was fixed on October 18, 2026 and will not change during the first 26 weeks.
Reading the Risk Pulse: from −100 to +100
One number for the mood of the whole market, updated every 5 minutes. Below zero, safe assets (bonds, gold) are doing better than risky ones: the market behaves as in a flight from risk. Above zero, risky assets (stocks, Bitcoin) are doing better than safe ones. Around zero, the market has no clear mood. We read prices, not who is buying: the Risk Pulse says how assets behave, not where money goes. The color behind the line names the situation:
What happens behind the scenes
Measure the movement. For each fund we take daily prices and compute realized volatility over the day, the week and the month.
Compare with the usual. Each figure is divided by the fund's own typical movement over the past year. The result is counted in steps, where 1 step is an ordinary amount.
Forecast the next period. A volatility model fitted on each fund's own history estimates the steps for the next day, week and month, with the range it hit 8 times out of 10 in the past.
Write and stamp. The forecast is turned into a Volatility Level, written to a file and time-stamped before the period begins.
Judge in public. When the period ends, the forecast is placed next to what happened and the result is added to the Track Record, hit or miss.
What it can do
Movement tends to cluster: rough days follow rough days, calm weeks follow calm weeks. This is one of the most stable findings in market research, and it is what the forecast relies on.
What it cannot do
We tested many ways to forecast direction on 25 years of data. None survived honest testing. That is why the Barometer never says whether a price is going up or down, and never will unless that changes in a test written down beforehand.
Who writes the words
The numbers and charts come from code. The words come from the Nostromo, NETWORKPMO's market desk: our own AI system, running on our own machines in Italy, that reads, measures and writes around the clock. Every number in a note is checked against the data, a note that sounds like advice is stopped before it is published, and the Nostromo, as co-editor, approves a note or an issue only after it has passed every check. The editor reads what is published and corrects or removes it when needed.
Off-hours, the Fat Lady takes over: she scores every story before the market answers, without ever seeing the price, so what we publish about a story is only what could be known when it came out.
Publication times (New York time)
A weather report for the markets.
Every day, millions of people are told where stocks are headed. Almost all of it is a guess. We spent years testing those guesses on decades of data, and found what the research has said for a long time: no one can reliably call the direction of prices.
But we also found something that holds up, test after test: how much markets move can be measured and forecast. Calm days follow calm days. Storms come in clusters. The Barometer is built on that one honest finding.
Antonio Cerasuolo
The Barometer is Antonio's idea, from the first line of code to the last chart on this page. It is the result of years of personal study and research into one question: what can actually be known about markets, and what can't?
Antonio is an engineer who has spent more than twenty-five years building and running the networks that keep businesses connected. He grew up between two worlds: he studied electrical engineering in New York, earning his bachelor's degree in 1989, then a degree in Electronics Engineering at the Politecnico di Milano. He is a native speaker of both English and Italian, and lives in Milan.
His career runs through the backbone of global telecom. At Global One, Equant and Orange Business Services he ran data centers across Italy, managed carrier interconnections with operators and regulators in Europe and the United States, and led cloud and voice projects for international customers. Today he works as an ICT network and security project manager, helping critical public infrastructure meet European cybersecurity standards (NIS2, GDPR).
That background shaped the Barometer: measure everything, trust nothing you haven't tested, and document every step. He designed the fleet of machines behind this site, the sealed-forecast method, and the Nostromo itself.
What Antonio built
Why he built it
After two decades inside the networks that move the world's data, Antonio wanted to apply the same discipline to markets: test every claim, keep what survives, and throw away what doesn't. When the evidence showed that price direction can't be called, he didn't hide it. He made it the foundation of the Barometer, and built an honest instrument around what can be measured.
Expertise
The ship's first mate
On a sailing ship, the nostromo is the bosun: the most experienced hand on deck, the one who keeps watch, reads the weather and tells the captain what is coming. That's the job Antonio gave him.
The Nostromo is an artificial intelligence, built by Antonio and running on NETWORKPMO's own machines. He reads every headline on the largest U.S. companies, follows the Risk Pulse minute by minute, works the night shift as the Fat Lady, and writes the notes and briefings you read on this site. He never sleeps and he never guesses: everything he says is checked against what the crew has measured.
He is not a trader and he gives no advice. He tells you how rough the water is and what is on the horizon: the events, the volatility, the mood of the market. Antonio sets his rules and reviews his work. Meet the rest of the crew →
The Nostromo at work
The rules Antonio gave him
- Say how much markets may move, never which way
- Every number must come from the crew's measurements
- No advice, no tips, no price targets, ever
- Show the age of every number, and show the misses
- Nothing goes out until Antonio has reviewed it
The Nostromo's night shift
There's an old saying in American sports and opera: "It ain't over till the fat lady sings." In the theater, the final aria tells you the story has ended. On the Barometer, the Fat Lady is the one who has the last word on every story before the market opens.
The Fat Lady is not a separate machine. She is the Nostromo himself, working a different shift with a different job and one strict rule. When Wall Street closes, the same AI switches roles: it goes back through every story the ship collected that day and gives each one her call — without ever being shown the price or what happened next. Is the story really about this company? Is it the kind of news that moves a stock? Why?
Keeping her blind to prices is the point. A news page reopened the next day can tell you how the story ended; the Fat Lady only knows what anyone could have known when it broke. That's why her calls can be graded honestly, and why the Nostromo trusts them when he builds the next morning's briefing.
Our story
The Barometer began as Antonio Cerasuolo's private research project. The goal was simple and ambitious: build a system that could forecast the market. He built many — dozens of models, hundreds of thousands of experiments, a fleet of machines running day and night.
Then we did what most forecasters never do: we wrote down every prediction before the fact, sealed it, and graded it honestly afterward. The direction calls failed. Every one of them, once we corrected for luck. What kept passing was volatility: whether tomorrow will be calmer or rougher than today.
So we stopped chasing direction and built an instrument around what works. That instrument is the Barometer.
What we believe
Measure, don't guess. Every number on this site comes from data, and every number shows its age.
Write it down first. Forecasts are time-stamped before the period begins and can never be edited.
Show the misses. Every wrong call stays on the Track Record, next to the right ones.
Say how much, never which way. We will not tell you where a price is going. We don't know, and neither does anyone else.
A day on the Barometer · New York time
What you get
- The Risk Pulse, updated every 5 minutes, with its full history
- A daily Volatility Level for the major U.S. and global markets
- Two-week volatility outlooks, market by market, with a trust score
- Every major story on the largest U.S. companies, and how the stock reacted
- An economic calendar that shows which events have historically moved markets
- A public, time-stamped Track Record of every forecast — hits and misses
- The Desk: Earnings Watch, the Evening Log, Fed & CPI Day coverage, the Theme Radar and Volatility Alerts
What you will never get
- Buy, sell or hold recommendations
- Price targets
- Opinions on where any price is heading
- Personalized investment advice
- Paid signals, tips or "can't-miss" trades
The Barometer describes the weather. It never tells you where to sail.
Who writes what you read
The numbers and charts are generated by code. The words come from the Nostromo, NETWORKPMO's market desk, powered by our own AI system running on our own hardware, and from the Fat Lady, our overnight news desk. Every note is checked against the data, anything that reads like advice is blocked, and Antonio Cerasuolo reviews before publication. Meet the crew →
Frequently asked
Is the Barometer free?
Yes. Everything on this site and every newsletter is free.
Can I use it to trade?
The Barometer is general market information, not investment advice. It tells you how much markets are likely to move, never which way. Any decision is yours.
How can I check that forecasts weren't edited?
Each forecast file is anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain through the free OpenTimestamps service. Anyone can verify it existed, unchanged, before the period began.
Where does the data come from?
From three independent market data sources, cross-checked against each other. A source that disagrees with the others is flagged and pulled.
Contact
Questions, corrections, press: barometer@networkpmo.com
Disclaimer
The Barometer measures how much markets move. It does not tell anyone what to buy, what to sell, or where any price is going. Please read this page before you use anything published on networkpmo.com.
- Not investment advice
- Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything
- No forecast of price direction, ever
- Past results do not guarantee future results
- You are solely responsible for your own decisions
1. General information only
Everything published by The Barometer — on this website, in newsletters, alerts, charts, tables, indices (including the Risk Pulse and the Volatility Level) and notes written by the Nostromo or the Fat Lady — is general market information provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is the same for every reader and does not take into account anyone's personal objectives, financial situation, knowledge, experience or needs.
2. Not investment advice, not a recommendation
Nothing we publish is, or should be read as, investment advice, a personal recommendation, a solicitation, or an offer to buy, sell or hold any security, fund, currency, cryptocurrency, derivative or other financial instrument, or to adopt any investment strategy. Mentions of companies, tickers, funds or markets are made only to describe market conditions and never as an endorsement.
3. We do not forecast direction
The Barometer forecasts volatility — how much a market may move — and reports events and measurements. It never states, implies or suggests whether any price will rise or fall. A high Volatility Level, a negative Risk Pulse, a "high impact" news call or a "rare move" says that movement is unusual or likely to be larger; it says nothing about its direction and must not be used as a buy or sell signal.
4. Regulatory status
NETWORKPMO is not authorized by CONSOB or any other European authority to provide investment services, and is not registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), FINRA or any state securities regulator. We do not manage money, execute trades, hold client assets, or provide individualized services.
5. Forecasts, models and past performance
Our forecasts come from statistical models applied to historical data. They are estimates, not certainties, and they can be wrong — our Track Record publishes every miss. Historical results, back-tests and hit rates do not guarantee future results. Markets can behave in ways never seen before.
6. Risk
Investing and trading involve substantial risk, including the loss of all the money invested. Leveraged products, options, futures and cryptocurrencies carry particularly high risk and are not suitable for everyone. Before making any financial decision, consider seeking advice from an independent, appropriately licensed professional.
7. Data, accuracy and delays
Market data comes from third-party sources and may be delayed, incomplete or inaccurate. Every figure shows its time stamp; live services can be interrupted, and the site will tell you when data is delayed. We do our best to check what we publish but make no warranty, express or implied, as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.
8. Content written with artificial intelligence
Notes, briefings and news calls signed by the Nostromo and the Fat Lady are produced with NETWORKPMO's own artificial-intelligence system and published automatically. Before publication every text passes automatic checks: it is written only from live data, a sentence that forecasts a direction or gives advice is blocked, and a number that is not in the data is blocked. The editor reads what is published and corrects or removes it when needed. E-mails are approved by the Nostromo, our AI co-editor, only after the same automatic checks, and the editor can stop them at any time. Despite these checks, AI-assisted content may contain errors or omissions. News summaries are our own descriptions; follow the original source for the full story.
9. No reliance, limitation of liability
You use the Barometer at your own risk. Any decision you make is yours alone. To the fullest extent permitted by law, NETWORKPMO, its founder and its contributors are not liable for any loss or damage, direct or indirect, arising from the use of, or reliance on, anything published on this site or in our communications.
10. Independence
The Barometer is not paid by, sponsored by or affiliated with any company, fund or issuer it mentions. No company can pay to appear, or not to appear, on the Barometer.
11. Third-party links and trademarks
Links to other websites are provided for convenience; we are not responsible for their content. Company names, tickers and index names belong to their respective owners and are used only to identify them. "S&P 500", "Dow Jones", "Nasdaq", "VIX" and similar names are trademarks of their owners, who do not sponsor or endorse the Barometer.
12. Changes and governing law
We may update this disclaimer at any time; the date at the top shows the latest version. This disclaimer is governed by Italian law, without prejudice to any mandatory consumer protection that applies in your country of residence.
Contact
Questions about this disclaimer: barometer@networkpmo.com · NETWORKPMO, Milan, Italy.